Cepci Annual Index3/8/2021
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To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds to upgrade your browser. ![]() The CEPCI hs a history of revisions.Most of these have been cosmetic, such as renaming the Fabricated Equipment sub-index to the more descriptive Heat exchangers and most recent, and most significant,revision - more like an overhaul - ocurred in 1982 2.The major changes incluided reducing the numbre of components with more suitable one, and revising the productivity factor downward from 2,50 to 1.75.(See next page for an explanation of the productivity factor)The 1982 changes deliberately retained the strcture of the CEPCI. The established structure Before describing the latest CEPCI revision,we need to review its structure and some history.Table 1 shows that the composite index is built from seven component -indexes, For all of these,values have been reported running back to 1947.Table 2 list annual values of the four sub- indexes and the composite index for the 1963 to 2000.Component -index for the years 1963 to 2000.Component -index data and an extension back to 1947 can be purchased from CEs editorial department.Each annual index is the arithmetic mean of the monthly indexes. Details of computing the values will be descussed below.For now, we will be discussed below.For now, we will stick with an outline, as shown in table 1.The component -indexes are complicated, and with appropiate weighting factors,are added up to make up the Equipment Index.Independently, three other sub-indexes are compiled,and with appropiate weighting and normalizing,the four sub indexes add up to the CEPCI While Table 2 is informative, it is a lot easier to see trends and relative, it is a lot easier to see trends and relative changes the indexes when ploted in Figure 1. A cursory look at this figure tells us that none of the five indexes increased monotonically during these 37 years.They had their ups and downs, but all of them were significantly higher in 2000 than in 1963. There is another reason for the the relative modest increases in the other sub-indexes -the CEPCI productivity factor. This factor,which discounts changes in the labor -cost components in the sub-indixes, tends to dampen increases in these sub-indixes.An index with large labor components,such are Construction Labor, is more influienced by the productivity factor than those with less-significant labor cost elements (such as Equipment. The five ndex curves change slopes downward around the year 1982.This was the year of the last major CEPCI revision.This revision involved a change in the productivity factor,as well as major reductions in the number of index component.Taken together these changes significantly affected the next 18 years of the CEPCI and its sub - indexes.There were other macroeconomic trends that also influence the data; such as a decline in interest rates over 20 years from 20 to 2.The inflationary 1970s have come and gone but left their mark. Meet the productivity factor We hav mentioned the CEPCI productivity factor several times already without explaining what it is or how it is calculated. In 1982 Matley 3explained that the productivity factor should be thougth of as a technological productivity factor that is predicated on advances in working tools and techniques.These advances include such obvious ones as the proliferation of the personal computers and other electronic tools, and less-evident (to non-construction professionals, at least) innovations as the complementation of modular construction techniques.However,Matley said that the factor should not be considered to account for changes in productivity arising from improvements in the quality of construction work-management.nor should it be regarded as reflecting productivity changes due to avances in the skill, experience or motivation of the work-force. Lastly, the factor does not take into account regional variations in construction wages3 Let us do the math and enter the productivity factor into the calculation of the CEPCI composite and is sub - indexes. It is used on every labor- cost component within a sub - index, component index, or the compositive index. Take the raw change in a labor - cost component and multiply it by the productivity factor to obtain the adjusted change in that component. This adjusted change is then an input to the calculation of the appropiate CEPCI sub-index, and the composite index. P.F1(1p12)n the productivity factor is calculated via Equation(1) where:P.F.productivity factor ( p Annual growth in construction labor productivity (fraccion) n Number of months between january ary 1947 and the index- update month. That is why the average productivity increase appears as p12. Cepci Annual Index How To Calculate TheFor instance, suppose that the raw (unadjusted) increase in the Engineering cost component from February 1963 to august 2000 was 400 (or 4.00).Here is how to calculate the adjusted change in this component: Substitute an annual productivity growth rate of 2.2 or 0.022 (this value is verified p.69) and the number of months from january 1947 to august 2000 (53 x 12 8 644). Equation (2) solves for a productivity factor of: P.F1(10.02212)6440.3074 Ec. Despite the fact that MS ndex is based on used-equipment prices, while the CEPCI is build around new plant-construction cost, trends in the MS index is published on CEs Economic Indicators page, along with the VAPCCI and the other indexes. Two questions of engineering philosophy intrude here and need addressing.
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